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 Post subject: Week 16 Betting Preview
PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:04 pm 
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1-2 last week brings us to 7-8 through 5 weeks... Hopefully I can get back to plus money before the season is over. The playoff race is getting real close with Shreveport winning over Tennessee, Iowa City winning at Detroit, and Oregon beating Alaska.

Three games that have some serious playoff implications:
Boston (-2) at Fargo - It's a good thing that the Sodbusters play indoors because it's supposed to be -2 degrees this week. BOS is no stranger to cold, but I think they'll be put out by FAR's rushing attack. BOS statistically has a pretty good rushing defense, but the few times they've faced truly strong ground and pound teams, they've wilted. TEN, BRK, and SHR were able to chew up yardage on the ground and RB Fulton is as good, if not better, than any of those rushers.

QB Klingbiel is back, but without a few of his talented receivers, the ball will likely find its way into RB Barker's hands and that may actually limit the offense. FAR has not been great defensively, but they are a team that isn't afraid to gamble and a few key stops should be enough. Their biggest enemy is their own carelessness (or just being unlucky) with the ball. The talent level in this game is off the charts from both teams, but I give FAR one last shot at keeping their playoff aspirations alive. BOS is also in such a good position at this point of the season that their goal is likely to stay healthy for the post season. 33-24 FAR.

Texas at San Antonio (-8) - TEX and DVY both have the same record in San Andreas and the division record is giving TEX the lead in this playoff race. TEX has the harder matchup in week 17 against SCU, so this game against SAN is massive. SAN is also playing for a WC spot and though a few things need to go their way for that to happen, they absolutely must win here.

Dropping last week's game against NOS just about kills their playoff aspirations, but the loss of QB Sammie England in the 4th quarter really shuts the door. The team is very talented still, but undrafted rookie QB Abraham Dumas is just not ready. The one thing that might lessen the drop off is the fact that SAN's gameplans have been very conservative and Dumas might be able to complete the same safe throws. I don't think that'll be enough against a reasonably solid squad in TEX and there's huge value on taking the points or even playing the outright upset. 26-20 TEX, but watch RB Lovallo drag the team across the finish line kicking and screaming...

Los Angeles at Detroit (-5) - Not a lot I can say about the DET loss to IWC other than some pretty big miscues costing us the game. The team played very well, but rare turnovers for DET were a bit too much to overcome. FS Luis Anthony is questionable to play and C Emtman is doubtful and these are some pretty big pieces.

LAS is mostly healthy, but injuries to TE Mardling and QB Bailey could put the game at even footing. It's hard to tell how badly Bailey's leg hurts though, since he stayed in the game vs CLE and played the entirety of the game against HON. In any case, LAS' success this season hasn't been due to their passing play, but rather their immensely powerful linemen-- RT Jacob Ellison is a giant of a man at 6-7 334lbs and with RG Perez at 6-5 332 lbs helping open up rushing lanes, it's no wonder RB Richie Arnold has had another prolific season. How they match up against NT Schindlbeck and the DET DLine will be the key to this game. The Vampires rely on a bend but don't break philosophy, giving up substantial yardage in games but very few points and pouncing on opportunities to snatch the ball.

In many ways, the two teams are similarly built with DET trading offensive line prowess for stars at the skill positions and island-type corners for linebacking depth. I predict a very close game that I hope DET will win, but I doubt they will cover. 30-27 DET, with TE Voinovich being able to punish the attention that LAS will be forced to direct towards WR Von Wyss.

Picks:
FAR +2
TEX +8
LAS +5

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Last edited by zenzog on Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 16 Betting Preview
PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:45 pm 

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We are on a mission to singlehandedly ruin your picks Zenzog, hope this week we can help you out and appreciate your confidence in us. You may have missed that BOS in number 1 in creating TOs but anyways as you said we pretty much beat ourselves most of the time.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 16 Betting Preview
PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:11 pm 
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Thanks for doing this. It's fun to see our team on the list in spite of our somewhat pathetic season.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 16 Betting Preview
PostPosted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:20 pm 
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Ushikawa wrote:
We are on a mission to singlehandedly ruin your picks Zenzog, hope this week we can help you out and appreciate your confidence in us. You may have missed that BOS in number 1 in creating TOs but anyways as you said we pretty much beat ourselves most of the time.


Yeah, Boston does have the most turnovers but if you look at who they came against--
ELP threw 5 interceptions
CLE threw 4 ints
NOS 2 ints/1 fumble
HAR 5 ints/1 fumble

I think Fargo is a little better than those teams (no offense to those teams)... Boston is a weird team to evaluate honestly, just looking at them on paper there's no way some of their games should've gone the way they did!

Best of luck everyone!

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 Post subject: Re: Week 16 Betting Preview
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:07 am 
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Nice work once again Zenzog.

Instead of a lackluster KC vs Tucson game, I might just watch the Fargo vs. Boston game.

Current champ vs. the draft guru :mrgreen:

The Boston future looks very bright. It is no secret that the KC front office is following every single Boston scout closely :smt005 - even on Twitter.

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 Post subject: Re: Week 16 Betting Preview
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:32 am 

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It was only lackluster nearing the end of the 3rd quarter. Fumble, INT, Punt block. Other than that, we played pretty tough.


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 Post subject: Re: Week 16 Betting Preview
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:30 am 
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Not sure which games I'll do for Week 17... anyone have any recommendations? There are a lot of games that "matter" but most of them aren't 2 contenders facing each other. Or, like ACI v BOS or ALA v BCI, one team is already locked into the post season...

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 Post subject: Re: Week 16 Betting Preview
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:34 pm 

Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:41 am
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Ternvig wrote:

Current champ vs. the draft guru :mrgreen:

The Boston future looks very bright. It is no secret that the KC front office is following every single Boston scout closely :smt005 - even on Twitter.


Am I the draft Guru?

Did you find me on Twitter?


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 Post subject: Re: Week 16 Betting Preview
PostPosted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:37 pm 

Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:41 am
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zenzog wrote:

Boston is a weird team to evaluate honestly, just looking at them on paper there's no way some of their games should've gone the way they did!



That's because Im not the best game planner. This is the first season I actually made a playbook by myself. The I normally do the guided game plans every week. Perhaps we would do much better if I rexed the offense, LOL.

BTW I love these. THank you so much.


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