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 Post subject: 2058 Betting Preview - Week 10
PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2020 2:14 pm 
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1-2 last week... brutal scenes as the Sodbusters pick up steam behind QB Woodard's return. Also not really sure how the Brawlers collapsed so comprehensively, but it looks like they couldn't get the ground game going so QB Staat had to throw and... well, not a good look for them.

This week, we're going to take a look two mismatches and one potential public overreaction...

Las Vegas (-9) at Honolulu - The Rounders took care of business against the Toros last week but QB McKnight taking a tumble makes this week's matchup a potential value play. LVS desperately needs to stay healthy towards the end of the season and I expect they'll be resting their star passer this week.

HON got embarrassed by BCI last week, but they've been a solid middle of the pack team with a tremendous ground game. Averaging nearly 7.5 ypc, the duo of RBs Gaiter and Boone should be carrying the load this week against a LVS defense that has traditionally struggled against the run. Losing so many starters on defense has taken a toll on their metrics though, so maybe HON can get away with a bit more than usual.

The Rounders should be pulling this one out, but I like the Hammerheads to cover. 24-17 LVS.

Miami at Fargo (-9) - In my most anticipated game last week, the Sodbusters put the Privateers straight into the dumpster. Though they weren't really able to contain the Fulton and Schreiber ground game, SCU simply could not keep running the ball after falling behind in the second quarter. Woodard and the aerial attack carried the day for FAR, but that's why I think MIA has a good shot to cover this week.

The Talons still have one of the most talented defensive units in the league. I pegged them as the #10 defense going into 2059 and although they've struggled in the first half of the season, I expect them to pull it together. DE Miyabuchi and the defensive front should pressure Woodard and I like CBs Eastman and Perry in coverage enough that Crabtree shouldn't have as free of a game as he's had.

FAR is really clicking this season, but I think MIA has enough to stay within the number. 30-24 FAR.

Durham (-3) at St Louis - This is a crazy one to me. I love Ortiz and Arnold as much as the next guy, but I can't trust the Bulldogs laying points. The Arch has a some great veterans on the roster that aren't happy with their recent results.

DUR enjoys most of their success when RB Arnold chews up yards and clock on the ground. Ortiz has the arm to make fantastic throws, but you can see the inexperience in his middle of the pack 58.3% completion rate. Even that is a bit inflated by the attention defenses have to give to Richie Arnold. What little success STL has seen has been on the defensive side as they are generally able to hold teams to manageable averages (11th in ypcarry and 8th in ypcatch). The struggles come when rookie QB Joyner and the offense repeatedly give the ball back over (currently 30th in the league with 17!).

I think that STL's defensive line has the goods to slow down Arnold-- they've done it with NOS' Alexander Mueller and SHR's CJ Russell. Then when Ortiz has to air it out, CB Traxler and SS England will be waiting. I just hope Joyner and the offense can get something going and not let it go to waste. 21-20 STL.

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 Post subject: Re: 2058 Betting Preview - Week 10
PostPosted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:15 am 
Durham Bulldogs

Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 12:04 pm
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Hey... we made one of the feature games this week!


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 Post subject: Re: 2058 Betting Preview - Week 10
PostPosted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:34 am 
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Steel wrote:
Hey... we made one of the feature games this week!


I wouldn't call these "feature" games... :smt005

But nice to get back to winning ways with a 2-1 record!

Very questionable of LVS to run McKnight out there with the sprain....

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 Post subject: Re: 2058 Betting Preview - Week 10
PostPosted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:09 pm 
Las Vegas Rounders
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zenzog wrote:

Very questionable of LVS to run McKnight out there with the sprain....


The plan was to sit him heading into the bye week, but he said he was not a bitch. He ran one in for us to make his point - he seldom runs, especially for TD's.

We like winners in Vegas.

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