Quote:
How did you do last season?
25-23 
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| 2063 Betting Preview - Week 1 http://www.thecfl.us/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11180 |
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| Author: | zenzog [ Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | 2063 Betting Preview - Week 1 |
Alright we did pretty good last season but ... new season new me. Early lines are a little wonky but I see some value here after looking at the rosters: Durham (-7) at Baltimore - Durham has yet to miss the playoffs with QB Ortiz under center but a ring still eludes the stellar 25-year old. This season, frustration from the fans and ownership resulted in GM Steel being replaced by GM SoxNation and to no-one's surprise, his priority was keeping as much of the top 5 offense together. RB Ellingson, WRs Hindman, Spradling, and TE Weikel combined for 2,883 receiving yards last season and they're poised to do it again. The issue might be the defense. GM Steel's last seasons were focused on powering up the offense and the other side of the ball suffered as a result. They still have some heavy hitters in S Tubbs and CB Taylor but CB Garvin (starting RCB) retired and DE Cobb (sack leader) walked in FA. Additional contributors in S Floyds, LB Wachsmuth, and S Cox also left during the offseason and it looks like the Bulldogs are rolling with a bunch of younger, less experienced guys to fill in the gaps. The Bombers were a team weirdly beloved by models and analytics last season but finished a paltry 5-11 after a decent start. QB O'Neill was about as likely to throw the game losing pick as he was to throw the game winning TD and the coinflip nature of his play cost them at least three wins over the season (maybe more!) Sophomore RB Humphries continued his standout play but the team leans on its consistent defensive play behind stars like DE Hitchcock and S Leskun. BAL's offseason was centered on drafting for the future and it looks like they have solid prospects in G Cote and WR Dillon while maintaining their core identity and it should help as they fight for relevance in a stacked division. This is a tall test but I think there's value in the Bombers catching points. DUR went 1-1 in its last two trips to BAL and now the Bombers have a distinct advantage on defense. The Bombers might not win but a cover is surely in the cards: DUR 27-24. Boise City (-13) at Oregon - I haven't featured Oregon much recently but I think they'll be in writeups more this season. This team looks absolutely terrible-- it's almost like the moves were on a TikTok titled "Tell Me You're Tanking Without Telling Me You're Tanking." QB Gaines showed that his rookie season was a fluke and that he simply has no future as a CFL quarterback. CB Baskerville was a top prospect certainly, but going fourth overall was a huge surprise to many fans and analysts. The success of that 2062 Washington State team is squarely on QB Frederick starting opponents on the back foot early. Sophomores TE Johnston and WR Tyler have shown flashes but they're still dependent on someone getting the ball to them and this guy Gaines isn't it. The Boise Retirement Home cleared its register this offseason with a whopping 10 players opting to retire going into 2063-- several after playing significant minutes-- but the roster is still better than what ORE is fielding. FA signings DE Gradkowski, DT Cole, and DE Holly immediately reloaded the defensive front while an aging QB Woodard under center should give the Stampede another one or two seasons of competent QB play. I could be wrong, but this team looks a little better to me than they did in 2062 and I like them to compete for a WC spot down the stretch. Oregon's 3-1 preseason record would have some thinking they aren't the 3 win team of yesteryear but I suspect they'll top out around that mark. 13 points is a lot to lay for any team's first game but this one looks straightforward. Boise City cruises to their first win: 30-10. St Louis at Omaha (-9) - It feels like the Arrowheads are next in line for the chip after their trades for CB Lauher, DE Rutherford, and TE Hoffman, but this line has taken the hype to unsustainable levels. STL barely lost at home (28-31 OT) and demolished OMA on the road (41-20) just last season! Am I missing something here? Will a deeper dive reveal who is out there laying 9 points with OMA? The Arrowheads made some significant moves this off-season and look poised for another deep playoff run in 2063. TE Duran was a huge piece of their offense, going for over 1,000 receiving yards each season from 2054-2058 and GM jjsmitty has apparently decided they need a similar talent in order to break through. TE Hoffman isn't the same big body but the speedier, more agile receiving option should still pose a problem for opposing linebackers. DE Rutherford and CB Lauher are 1-to-1 replacements for CB Kaiser and DE Paton and should fit in just fine. Perhaps the most exciting addition to the roster is LB Green who picked up 2 tackles, 2 assists, 1 forced fumble, and 1 interception in extremely limited play during the preseason. The rookie finds himself at the top of the latest depth chart released by the team and should develop into a gamechanger. STL has timed their rebrand nicely-- the squad posted its first winning season in 7 years and should do the same in 2063. What was a somewhat one dimensional attack of RBs Perkins and Rogers now offers a deep threat in WR West. We haven't seen QB Joyner throw it deep in a while but he put on a show at UNC so the talent is there. New OC Dylan Hanson won't be pulling punches as he bids for his third bowl win. They may not get off to the hottest start with several rookies and new players in the rotation but this is a well-rounded team with a bright future ahead. 9 points is a lot to lay in a divisional game and while I see the allure in backing OMA, I have to take STL here. This run game is no less effective on the road and if WR West can sync up with QB Joyner, they'll be able to control time of possession and keep this explosive OMA offense off the field. STL should cover here, though a win may be difficult: OMA wins 24-21. |
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| Author: | TurfToe [ Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2063 Betting Preview - Week 1 |
Stellar as usual. |
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| Author: | hbcook86 [ Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2063 Betting Preview - Week 1 |
And the curse of the Zog continues |
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| Author: | Ternvig [ Mon Feb 07, 2022 11:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2063 Betting Preview - Week 1 |
How did you do last season? |
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| Author: | zenzog [ Tue Feb 08, 2022 11:25 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2063 Betting Preview - Week 1 |
Quote: How did you do last season?
25-23
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| Author: | JJ Smitty [ Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2063 Betting Preview - Week 1 |
Great Write up Zen, the Silverbacks have my number and they will be tough to beat going forward. |
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