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| 2007 Wild Card Previ http://www.thecfl.us/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1602 |
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| Author: | CFL Guru [ Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | 2007 Wild Card Previ |
<img src="http://www.thecfl.net/cfl/helmet14.jpg" width="35" height="35"> [b3d129e8]Baltimore Bombers[/b3d129e8] (9-6-1) at <img src="http://www.thecfl.net/cfl/helmet19.jpg" width="35" height="35"> [b3d129e8]Charleston Monitors[/b3d129e8] (11-5) The first wild card game of the year includes two Atlantic Division rivals, the division champion Charleston Monitors, who will host the Bombers from Baltimore. The home team won both matchups this year, with Baltimore winning in week 11 by a score of 24-16 and later Charleston conquered in week 15 by a score of 38-24. Charleston is 7-1 at home this year, and hopes to make it 8-1 this week. On the other side, Baltimore has lost their last 4 road games and is 3-5 on the road this year. Baltimore leads the all-time series 6 games to 4, but this game is bigger than any of the previous 10 meetings between these teams. This is the first playoff game for Baltimore since 2003 when they went 14-2 in the regular season (both losses were to Charleston) and lost to Cleveland in the divisional round. Charleston has not been in a playoff game since their victory in CFL Bowl II. On offense, the Bombers like to air it out on offense but have struggled on defense, especially late in the season. Over their past 8 games they have given up 26.5 points per game. Charleston has had success running the ball, and has a better defense, holding opponents to 10 points or less 6 times this year. Finally, Baltimore is very healthy but the Monitors suffered three significant injuries week 17. Starting SS Chris Haugh broke his tibia, starting CB Hershel Schrock strained a tendon in his elbow, and starting LT Gregory Williams separated his shoulder. All three will miss this week's playoff game. [i3d129e8]Guru's pick: Baltimore takes advantage of a weakened secondary and steals a victory in Charleston by a score of 31-30.[/i3d129e8] <img src="http://www.thecfl.net/cfl/helmet15.jpg" width="35" height="35"> [b3d129e8]Long Beach Calibri[/b3d129e8] (9-7) at <img src="http://www.thecfl.net/cfl/helmet05.jpg" width="35" height="35"> [b3d129e8]Santa Cruz Privateers[/b3d129e8] (11-5) The next wild card game features two San Andreas Division teams, the division champion Santa Cruz Privateers and the Long Beach Calibri. This is Long Beach's first playoff appearance, and they made the playoffs by winning the tiebreaker against Seattle (9-7) and Las Vegas (9-7). Perhaps Vegas has other ideas because Long Beach is favored to win by 4 points, despite losing the teams' two matchups this year by a combined score of 55-12. Santa Cruz also leads the all time series 7-3, although they do have the honor of being the first team to lose to Fargo this year, who was 0-7 at the time. It has been the defense that has made Long Beach competitive this year, led by offseason acquisitions DE Bob McCalla (65 tackles, 9 sacks, 27 hurries), LB Issac Roper (121 tackles, 43 assists, 5 interceptions), and CB Craig Jiles (58 tackles, 3 interceptions, 9 defended passes). However, the Calibri offense is getting hot at just the right time. In their first 10 games this year, they only scored 18 points or higher twice. However, they have scored 20 or more points in each of their last 6 games, during which they have gone 5-1 with the only loss coming at Hartford (15-1). They have found a way to win without putting up big stats. Their leading rusher (Sherman New) only had 453 rushing yards (last year he had 1,475). QB Charles McMillan has a rating of only 75.5 and threw more INTs (17) than TDs (16). McMillan and New will have to play their best this week against the top defense in the CFL. The Privateers allowed less than 14 points per game, and only 6 points per game (all field goals) against Long Beach this year. The Santa Cruz defense is led by safeties David Pitman (7 INTs and 2 TDs) and David Visser (6 INTs and 1 TD). 330 pounder Harold Stoltzfus is a monster at his DT position, posting 67 tackles, 17 assists, 7 sacks, 2 blocked passes, 23 hurries, and occasionally he drops into coverage, having 3 defended passes for his career. [i3d129e8]Guru's pick: Long Beach had a successful season, but they won't make it past this week. Santa Cruz wins easily, 34-3.[/i3d129e8] <img src="http://www.thecfl.net/cfl/helmet20.jpg" width="35" height="35"> [b3d129e8]New York Knights[/b3d129e8] (9-7) at <img src="http://www.thecfl.net/cfl/helmet31.jpg" width="35" height="35"> [b3d129e8]Detroit Vampires[/b3d129e8] (11-5) Detroit has won the Great Lakes division for the 3rd year in a row. The previous two seasons they had a first round bye, but this year they are forced to play a wild card game against the dangerous New York Knights. It was New York who bounced Hartford out of the playoffs last year in the wild card round, and they hope to do the same to the Vampires this year. These two teams faced each other in Detroit back in week 5 when the Vampires were 4-0 and the Knights were 1-3. The result? A 41-16 New York victory. That victory turned the New York season around, as they won their next 4 games as well. New York's best CB, Mark Tatum, separated his shoulder in week 17 and will sit out this week. He will probably be replaced by 9th year pro Fredric Yingling, who was signed as a free agent during the offseason. New York will need a better pass rush to compensate, and it's time that 11th year veteran Jerrold Moton earns his $8.7M cap figure. Moton only has 1.5 sacks this year. On offense, the Knights play it safe as QB Kim Pace is not afraid to dump the ball off to FB Chris Garcia (2nd on the team with 78 catches). Detroit also throws underneath a lot, and why not when you've got TE Brian Manos who can catch and then break tackles. Manos was 3rd in the league in yards after the catch (302), only trailing record breaking WRs Matt Brunner and Kelley McCaleb. RB Monty Boyd may have been the best offseason move made by Detroit, as he totalled 1362 rushing yards and served as a solid replacement for Thomas Wadsworth who was injured in CFL Bowl IV. [i3d129e8]Guru's pick: I think this one's going to be close, but Detroit will pull it out and win 20-13.[/i3d129e8] <img src="http://www.thecfl.net/cfl/helmet25.jpg" width="35" height="35"> [b3d129e8]Tucson Toros[/b3d129e8] (10-6) at <img src="http://www.thecfl.net/cfl/helmet29.jpg" width="35" height="35"> [b3d129e8]Denver Dynomite[/b3d129e8] (10-6) It's now the third straight road wild card game for the Tucson Toros. They defeated El Paso (10-6) in 2005, they defeated Sacramento (10-6) in 2006, and now they face Denver (10-6) in 2007. Denver missed the playoffs for the past two years, but now won their third Cavalry Division title in five years. Tucson and Denver have not played each other this year, and have only met twice in the history of the CFL, with each team winning once. The forecast calls for a brisk 22 degree day in Denver, but that hasn't stopped Vegas from naming Tucson (average December high = 65 degrees) as a two point favorite. And why not? You only needed 7 victories to win the Cavalry Division this year, and Denver is only 5-5 against non-division opponents. Meanwhile, Tuscon is 7-3 against teams outside of its Ring of Fire Division, with losses to New Orleans (11-5) and Anchorage (12-4). In comparison, Denver has lost to Tampa Bay (4-12) and Sacramento (8-8). Both sides have injury concerns, as Denver will miss its best DE (Zachery Duggan) who has a strained deltoid muscle, and Tucson will miss its best WR (Carl Markey) who has a separate shoulder. Tucson will once again rely on young RB Drew Holliday, who has 6 100-yard rushing days this year. On the other side, RB John Lubin has 32 rushing TDs in his past two seasons. [i3d129e8]Guru's pick: Denver's QB Marcus Garibaldi doesn't have the experience to lead his team to a playoff victory yet. Tucson is destined for a later matchup with Honolulu and they win this week by a score of 23-13.[/i3d129e8] |
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| Author: | Fonzie [ Tue Aug 02, 2005 8:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2007 Wild Card P |
Excellent analysis Guru! And I can only hope you're right about this: [quotec852546="CFL Guru"][ic852546]Tucson is destined for a later matchup with Honolulu and they win this week by a score of 23-13.[/ic852546][/quotec852546] Given the pasting we suffered last week when we threw our rookies up against Honolulu's starters, I'd like to get another shot at them. If we're lucky enough to do so (and I'm not sure we will be - Denver's damn good), I promise the fans to keep the game within 30 points! |
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