After week 15:

Long Beach 7-7 Overall
Sacramento 7-7 Overall

[b66d7d94]1st Tiebreaker:[/b66d7d94] 1-1 Head-to-head

[b66d7d94]2nd Tiebreaker:[/b66d7d94] 3-2 Conference record for both teams

[b66d7d94]3rd Tiebreaker:[/b66d7d94] record vs. common opponents, I may be fucked here, lets check it out.

[u66d7d94]Long Beach [/u66d7d94]
Wins: Huntington Beach, Chicago, Anchorage, Huntington Beach, Cleveland
Losses: Seattle, Boise, Oregon, Santa Cruz, Albany

So overall, 5-5 in common games played, with 2 remaining against Detroit and Santa Cruz.


[u66d7d94]Sacramento[/u66d7d94]
Wins: Cleveland, Oregon, Huntington Beach, Santa Cruz, Chicago
Losses: Santa Cruz, Anchorage, Boise, Seattle, Detroit

Overall, 5-5 in common games played, with 2 remaining against Albany and Huntington Beach.

Fuck, another tie.

[b66d7d94]4th Tiebreaker:[/b66d7d94] Conference record, both teams are tied at 5-6.

[b66d7d94]5th Tiebreaker:[/b66d7d94] Strength of Victory. Long Beach holds the edge here. Their opponents records are 40-58 (.408) vs. Sacramento's 36-62 (.367). But those numbers are close enough that some other teams games may in fact decide the division for either team.

This is what I found about strength of victory:

"It's the season-ending winning percentages of every team your team has beaten."

that was my next guess. makes sense since that is what strength of schedule means. doh.

Now it appears the scenarios for Sacramento to win the division would be something like:

-Sacramento winning twice, Long Beach losing once
-Sacramento winning once, Long Beach losing twice
-Sacramento and Long Beach both finishing 1-1 the last 2 weeks, with Sacramento defeating Huntington Beach and Long Beach losing to Santa Cruz. This would give us the division tie breaker.


If we both win out or lose out it will come down to the strength of victory tiebreaker, since everything else will remain tied.

Ok that one is going to be super close as well. According to my rough calculations right now the strength of victory records are:

Long Beach - 34-50 .404
Sacramento - 36-62 .367

But if you assume both teams win out it'd close the gap to:

Long Beach - 46-66 .410
Sacramento - 45-67 .401

That is a pretty rough calculation as I just added the teams current records. In any case, every single game by the teams Long Beach and Sacramento beat could end up being a factor in the last two weeks.

[quote3249049="timmynausea"]Ok that one is going to be super close as well. According to my rough calculations right now the strength of victory records are:

Long Beach - 34-50 .404
Sacramento - 36-62 .367

But if you assume both teams win out it'd close the gap to:

Long Beach - 46-66 .410
Sacramento - 45-67 .401

That is a pretty rough calculation as I just added the teams current records. In any case, every single game by the teams Long Beach and Sacramento beat could end up being a factor in the last two weeks.[/quote3249049]

Yep it will be close if it comes down to that. On a separate note, our calculations are different because I included Huntington Beach's record twice since Long Beach beat them twice. Is that correct or would it only be included once as you did?

[quote3d1c5cb="Joe"]
Yep it will be close if it comes down to that. On a separate note, our calculations are different because I included Huntington Beach's record twice since Long Beach beat them twice. Is that correct or would it only be included once as you did?[/quote3d1c5cb]

I really don't know.

Ok based on the calculations on the NFL.com standings, it is correct to add Huntington Beach twice.

This changes the current numbers to

Long Beach - 40-58 .408
Sacramento - 36-62 .367

And if they win out:

Long Beach - 52-74 .412
Sacramento - 51-75 .404

Don't forget Huntington B. could still win the division if they win out (8-8 record) and both Long Beach and Sacramento lose both of their remaining games (7-9 record)...

[quotedce3cd0="fantastic flying froggies"]Don't forget Huntington B. could still win the division if they win out (8-8 record) and both Long Beach and Sacramento lose both of their remaining games (7-9 record)...[/quotedce3cd0]

They don't count because their logo is ugly.

[quote1cf81b0="fantastic flying froggies"]Don't forget Huntington B. could still win the division if they win out (8-8 record) and both Long Beach and Sacramento lose both of their remaining games (7-9 record)...[/quote1cf81b0]

Wow, that is a good point. They have been eliminated from the wild card race, but are still alive in the division. I had overlooked that.

[quote115b610="fantastic flying froggies"]Don't forget Huntington B. could still win the division if they win out (8-8 record) and both Long Beach and Sacramento lose both of their remaining games (7-9 record)...[/quote115b610]
We're not out yet!

_________________

[quote269c60b="timmynausea"]Long Beach - 52-74 .412
Sacramento - 51-75 .404[/quote269c60b]Not to discount HB in any way, shape or form but it'd be funny as all heck if our division title does come down to those 0.008.

With both Sacramento and Long Beach winning, the tiebreakers remain the same, as it goes down to Strength of Victory.


[ub0c739e]Sacramento's Wins[/ub0c739e]
Cleveland 5-10
Las Vegas 8-7
Oregon 4-11
Huntington Beach 7-8
Santa Cruz 5-10
Chicago 2-13
Long Beach 8-7
Albany 9-6

Total 48- 72 (.400)

[ub0c739e]Long Beach's Wins[/ub0c739e]
Huntington Beach 7-8
Chicago 2-13
El Paso 8-7
Sacramento 8-7
Anchorage 8-7
Huntington Beach 7-8
Cleveland 5-10
Detroit 8-7

Total 53- 67 (.441)

Shitty. Well I still have a shot if we both win, as Santa Cruz will drop theirs down, and Huntington Beach would push mine up a bit, plus other teams can affect it.

Thanks to a 7-6 victory by Santa Cruz over Long Beach, Sacramento has won the division. But I'm more than a little curious to see what would have happened had Long Beach prevailed. So this is the SOV tiebreaker with only the outcome of that game reversed.



Sacramento's Wins
Cleveland 6-10
Las Vegas 8-8
Oregon 5-11
Huntington Beach 7-9
Santa Cruz 5-11
Chicago 2-14
Long Beach 9-7
Albany 9-7
Huntington Beach 7-9

Total 58-86 (.403)

Long Beach's Wins
Huntington Beach 7-9
Chicago 2-14
El Paso 8-8
Sacramento 9-7
Anchorage 8-8
Huntington Beach 7-9
Cleveland 6-10
Detroit 9-7
Santa Cruz 5-11

Total 61- 83 (.424)

So they would've still won it. Good thing it didnt come down to it though.