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I feel like the engine uses drops to correct overtargetting some...if a guy gets 10+ targets you will almost always see a couple drops
That seems like the best explanation so far.
I had 5 more drops in Week 17, bringing my team's total to 44 on the season. My best WR is Mason Conley who now has 20 drops on the season. The most he ever had previously was 10 in his 3rd season when his targets hit 191 on the year. His targets this year with 20 drops? 259.
I quickly checked his drop % and it was 3% his rookie year and was 5% every year until this year where it is 8%. Drops ranged from 2 to 10 over those years with a target range of 77 to 195. So I guess a few percentage points increase should be expected when targeting a guy over 250 times.
Conley's Avoid Drops is 54, so average in that department. I think there is probably a sweet spot in the mid-100's for number of targets for your top receiver where you'll maximize catch % and minimize drop %. Looking at the seasons in the high 100's and into the 200's target-wise seems to have a decrease in catch % and an increase in drop %, which is common sense I guess.
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