Ah, strategy games. Every so often one of those truly delicious decisions comes along that makes the game live. This week I have encountered one of those decisions. I'm undecided at this point about which way to go, so I thought I'd throw it out there for everyone else to chime in on. I thought it would at least provide for some between-game chatter, and perhaps spark a discussion of how folks tend to handle injuries.

My situation: hated in-state rivals Arizona knocked our starting quarterback Milan "Colonel" Hogan out of the game a few weeks ago with a strained patellar tendon (they were also the goons who knocked out Lenny "Jackpot" Olsen - the commissioner may want to investigate this pattern). He was listed as "Out" with a recovery time of 4 weeks. The dropoff to our backup, Daryl Cassidy, is substantial, but nevertheless we managed to unexpectedly win our first two games in Hogan's absence and now sit at 8-4. That puts us one game behind Honolulu (9-3) and one game ahead of Las Vegas (7-5) in the division title race.

Hogan is now listed as "Questionable" with two weeks to go until complete recovery. We travel to Charleston (10-2) this week to face a very tough team. I would typically assume a road loss, take the extra healing time for Hogan, and move on in this circumstance. But here's the catch: Charleston is likely to be without the services of super-stud QB Landon Hurst, who is listed as "Doubtful" on their injury report with broken ribs. His absence suddenly makes this a much more winnable game.

And winning that game might be important, as Honolulu has a favorable (but not a slam-dunk) matchup this week at home against Baltimore and Las Vegas has a tough assignment in a trip to Durham. A win would keep me just one game behind Honolulu (with our very next game at home against them) and may also help to distance me from Las Vegas (against whom we also play in week 17).

A loss to Charleston will likely drop us two games behind Honolulu and essentially relegates us to the Wild Card hunt. We'd be in dangerous territory there, battling it out with Las Vegas, El Paso, and Tulsa in that race with an 8-5 record.

Having Hogan back certainly would give us a better chance to win, as it would be fairly easy for Charleston to load up against the run to focus on Holliday (although that didn't work so well for my opponents in the last two games). However, the Nightmare Scenario is that we start Hogan, lose the game, and he reaggravates his injury and is lost for the season. That means we'd not only lose out on the division title, but we'd almost certainly be out of the playoffs.

One additional variable: I tend to be conservative in bringing starters back from injury. As a rule I don't like starting guys until they're at least probable, and I usually wait until they're 100% if the injury was a serious one. So there's that.

God I love strategy games. The Toros' season may well hinge on this decision, which clearly has numerous influencing factors. I'm currently leaning towards benching him for one more week and getting him healthy for Honolulu, but I'm still entertaining the idea of starting him. I'm curious to learn what others would do in this situation.

So given all of this: what would you do? Risk it and start him? Or play it safe and keep him on the bench?

_________________

Ring of Fire Division Champions - 2009, 2011-2026, 2028-33
Western Conference Champions - 2011-2013, 2016, 2017, 2019-2022, 2024, 2025, 2028, 2033
CFL Champions - 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2025

Ah crap. I meant for this to go in the General Discussion forum. Can any of the mods move it?

_________________

Ring of Fire Division Champions - 2009, 2011-2026, 2028-33
Western Conference Champions - 2011-2013, 2016, 2017, 2019-2022, 2024, 2025, 2028, 2033
CFL Champions - 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2025

Nevermind. I copied it to GD myself, but I don't know how to delete it from here.

_________________

Ring of Fire Division Champions - 2009, 2011-2026, 2028-33
Western Conference Champions - 2011-2013, 2016, 2017, 2019-2022, 2024, 2025, 2028, 2033
CFL Champions - 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2025

To the conservative go the couch. Win and play to win at all costs. This loss could hurt you bigtime in the end. There are only 16 games and they all count big time.

_________________

I say play Hogan so that you beat Charleston and give me a chance to get a 1st round bye!

[quote6b696db="Fonzie"]But here's the catch: Charleston is likely to be without the services of super-stud QB Landon Hurst, who is listed as "Doubtful" on their injury report with broken ribs. His absence suddenly makes this a much more winnable game.[/quote6b696db]

You're welcome.

[quote6b696db="Fonzie"]Having Hogan back certainly would give us a better chance to win, as it would be fairly easy for Charleston to load up against the run to focus on Holliday (although that didn't work so well for my opponents in the last two games).[/quote6b696db]

It worked for me, even with the Colonel at the helm.

[quote6b696db="Fonzie"]One additional variable: I tend to be conservative in bringing starters back from injury. As a rule I don't like starting guys until they're at least probable, and I usually wait until they're 100% if the injury was a serious one. So there's that.[/quote6b696db]

You either hit on 16 or you stay...how do you play the game?

Personally, I like to go for it and have no regrets. If you start him and he blows up, at least you know you're done. If you sit him and lose, you bring him back and lose to me in Week 17 for the difference maker and wonder if he could have won that one game for you. It's your call, but Bidwell's gonna beat your ass anyway, as the Colonel didn't play defense the last I checked. TE Bidwell goes for 8 catches, 138 yards, and 2 TD's...print it!

Or not...

_________________
ROF Division Champions: 2039 - 2043, 2045, 2047, 2054, 2056 - 2060, 2063, 2066-2067, 2070-2072
WFC Conference Champions: 2018, 2041, 2042, 2057-2058, 2060, 2062-2063
CFL Champions: 2018, 2041, 2057-2058, 2060, 2062

P.S. Jackpot was 'Out' for 5 weeks and came up as 'Probable' this past week. I faced the same decision you are facing now. I rolled the dice because my season was 1 game away from being over.

Is this a must win for you? The answer to this question answers your other question...

2

_________________
ROF Division Champions: 2039 - 2043, 2045, 2047, 2054, 2056 - 2060, 2063, 2066-2067, 2070-2072
WFC Conference Champions: 2018, 2041, 2042, 2057-2058, 2060, 2062-2063
CFL Champions: 2018, 2041, 2057-2058, 2060, 2062